China's solar slowdown, seen from space: the Q2 2026 Solar Asset Mapper release

Summary

TZ-SAM now tracks nearly 110,000 solar facilities across 194 countries and territories, with a total detected capacity of 1,383 GW, a 3.9% increase from Q1 2026.

China's detected capacity additions more than halved, from 38 GW in Q1 to 16 GW in Q2, as the market adjusts to last year's shift from fixed tariffs to market-based pricing. That accounts for around two-thirds of the global slowdown.

Detected capacity in the Philippines grew 17.5%, the fastest among Asia's ten largest solar markets, with construction at MTerra Solar, set to become the world's largest single-site solar and battery facility, visible in the data ahead of its July inauguration.

The global picture

Global solar deployment is still growing, but the pace has shifted. TZ-SAM, our global, asset-level solar dataset built using planetary-scale machine learning, detected 1,383 GW of solar capacity across 109,902 facilities in Q2 2026, up 52 GW on the previous quarter. That 3.9% quarterly increase is the the slowest quarterly growth since the Q2 2024 release, down from 6.8% in Q1. The dataset includes location, capacity, and estimated construction dates for installations with a capacity of 1 MW or more - all figures in this release describe detected solar capacity according to TZ-SAM, which excludes rooftop and small distributed solar.

China accounts for most of the slowdown. Excluding China, detected capacity grew 4.8%, faster than the global average, and three countries recorded their first utility-scale solar detections this quarter: Liberia, the British Virgin Islands, and the Marshall Islands, taking TZ-SAM's coverage to 194 countries and territories.

China's cooling buildout

China installed a record 315 GW of solar in 2025, more than half of all new capacity globally, as developers raced to complete projects ahead of the June 2025 transition from fixed feed-in tariffs to a market-based pricing system (Carbon Brief). Since then, official figures from China's National Energy Administration have shown a sharp deceleration, with monthly installations in early 2026 running well below last year's levels and analysts describing a market recalibrating to new revenue structures rather than a collapse in demand.

TZ-SAM now provides independent, satellite-based corroboration of that trend. Detected capacity additions in China more than halved quarter on quarter, from 38 GW in Q1 to 16 GW in Q2, taking quarterly growth from 7.1% to 2.8%, China's slowest in the dataset's recent series. Because TZ-SAM identifies utility-scale assets from satellite imagery, independently of government reporting, it offers analysts and planners a way to verify the pace of deployment on the ground.

The absolute figures will not match official statistics, and they are not meant to. Official data counts grid connections, including distributed and rooftop solar below TZ-SAM's detection threshold, and there is a lag between construction, grid connection, and satellite detection. The value of the comparison is that two independent methods now show the same trend.

The slowdown also has a flip side. Chinese module exports remain strong, and TZ-SAM shows rapid growth in many importing markets across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. China is building less at home, but its manufacturers are supplying much of the growth elsewhere.

Spotlight: the Philippines picks up the pace

TZ-SAM detects 4.9 GW of solar capacity in the Philippines in Q2 2026, up 17.5% on the previous quarter. That makes it the fastest grower among Asia's ten largest markets by detected capacity, and marks the country's third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Detected capacity is up more than 50% since Q3 2025.

A single project tells much of the story. MTerra Solar, spanning five municipalities across Nueva Ecija and Bulacan on Luzon, is being built to reach 3,500 MW of solar and 4,500 MWh of battery storage, which would make it the world's largest integrated solar and battery facility on a single site. Its first phase was inaugurated in July 2026 with over 1,300 MW of solar energised.

The site first appeared in TZ-SAM data in August 2025, nearly a year before the inauguration, and the Q2 2026 release records the main cluster as an expansion, with new sections detected as complete by late June 2026. The release estimates 686 MW of detected solar capacity at the site's main cluster. This differs from the project's nameplate figures as detection reflects what is visible and complete at the time of satellite imagery. View the detected site in TZ-SAM’s explorer here.

Time lapse of MTerra Solar, Luzon, Philippines

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The Philippines' surge also connects the two halves of this quarter's story. With domestic demand cooling, Chinese manufacturers have pushed harder into export markets, and Ember's analysis of Chinese customs data shows the Philippines has become the second-largest destination for Chinese solar panel exports in 2026. Rising fuel import costs following the Iran crisis have added to the economic case for solar across Southeast Asia. Cheaper panels and dearer fuel are a powerful combination for a country that imports most of its energy. Notably, Ember attributes much of the import surge to rooftop solar, which sits below TZ-SAM's detection threshold, so our figures likely understate the full extent of the Philippine buildout.

Regional trends

Asia remains dominant in absolute terms with 869 GW of detected capacity, though its quarterly growth halved to 3.7% on the back of China's deceleration. India is the standout beyond China: it added 9 GW of detected capacity this quarter, second only to China in absolute terms and growing at 8.9%, more than three times China's rate.

Africa was the fastest-growing region for the third consecutive quarter, up 9.6% to 19 GW. South Africa (up 9.2% to 8 GW) and Egypt (up 7.1% to 3 GW) anchor the region, but the growth is broad: the Democratic Republic of the Congo grew 38.6%, Zambia 46.1%, and Algeria 13.0%.

Europe grew 4.4% to 211 GW, holding its position as the second-largest region ahead of North America (208 GW, up 3.5%). Spain, last quarter's spotlight, extended its lead as Europe's largest market by detected capacity, growing 4.6% to 48 GW. South America added 3 GW to reach 58 GW, up 5.1%, and Oceania grew 5.5%, with New Zealand the standout at 40.4% quarterly growth, albeit from a small base.

Country-level highlights

The global top 10 by detected capacity is unchanged from last quarter: China (592 GW), the United States (185 GW), India (111 GW), Japan (54 GW), Spain (48 GW), Germany (39 GW), Brazil (35 GW), Turkey (24 GW), Italy (22 GW), and Australia (17 GW).

Among smaller markets, Iran grew 33.5% to 2.6 GW of detected capacity, Indonesia grew 23.5%, Cuba 22.4%, and Lao PDR 33.2%, whilst Kyrgyzstan more than doubled from a low base in its second quarter in the dataset.

Using TZ-SAM data

By tracking both the number of utility-scale assets and the estimated capacity of those assets, TZ-SAM data can show how macroeconomic trends and policy decisions impact solar deployments and the broader energy transition. The Solar Asset Explorer is an interactive web interface for exploring TZ-SAM data, offering clickable polygons with key asset details and raw satellite imagery behind the detections.

TZ-SAM data is published retrospectively, with data for the preceding quarter delivered in the current quarter.

TZ-SAM users who download TZ-SAM through this form and tick the box opting in for updates have the data delivered directly to their inbox.

The TZ-SAM Q2 2026 dataset is open access under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial use. Download it now.

TZ-SAM is built and maintained by Mason Phillpott, Senior Data Scientist; Joe O'Connor, Head of Machine Learning; Max Santos, Data Scientist; and Michael Guzzardi, Senior Platform Product Manager. Insights and communications by Hannah Brennan, Communications and Marketing Manager.

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